10 strategies for profitable short selling in FX market
Short selling is a skill that capitalises on the mechanics of market transition from high to low prices. The learning curve is intimidating to investors and traders. They sometimes avoid short sales, even in a bear market. Short sale strategy has a probability of profitability through up and downtrends when strict management rules and careful timing are in place.
It is easier to profit during downtrends. Despite the advantage, relentless targeting of short sellers in bear markets often cause them to become trapped in violent squeezes that blow out carefully placed stop-losses. This occurrence serves as a reality check that long-term profitability requires more than investing money in a falling security.
Defensive trade management, perfect timing, and simple entry strategies are requirements of short sale mastery. Sellers need rules that enhance strategies and lower the risk of being caught in a short squeeze. There are no fail-proof strategies. Incurring losses from time to time is natural. Minimising the unpleasant occurrences and finding aggressive ways to ride lower level prices are the tricks of the trade.
Any time the market is liquid with no restrictions, short selling is possible. The U.S. uptick rule that requires short sale transactions to be at a higher price than the previous trade comes into play after a security falls ten percent. That factor is rarely relevant to decisions to sell short.
When a customer takes a short position, the broker theoretically has the security in inventory. Due to competitive business practices, naked short sales with no corresponding inventory is currently a widespread practice. The following strategies tend to yield profitable short sales.
- Sell a pullback in a downtrend
Many traders choose short sales when a security reaches a new high. They believe the security rose too far. This strategy is a recipe for disaster because it is possible for uptrends to persist longer than fundamental or technical analysis predicted. Those weak-handed short sellers in high uptrends provide fuel for increasing high prices.
A pullback is a price falling back to an original from a peak. This price movement is a brief reversal of an upward trend that signals a slight pause in upward momentum.
- Countertrend
The successful short seller avoids crowds while using emotional energy to be in the best position at the best price. Countertrend bounces offer ideal short sale conditions. A countertrend strategy tends to make small gains in a series of trades that are against the trend. In this strategy, investors know the price other sellers likely assign to a position.
Most trend-following positions are losing propositions. Trend followers suffer most in sharp trend pullbacks.
- Technical analysis
The technical analysis strategy evaluates securities by analysis of market activity-generated statistics. There is no attempt to measure the intrinsic value of a security. Instead, charts and other tools are useful in identifying patterns that suggest future activity.
There are three assumptions made by technical analysis traders:
- Everything is subject to market discounts.
- There are trends in price movement.
- History seems to repeat itself.
- Short weak market groups and sectors
Let other traders stare at explosive uptrends anticipating a security being too high and ready to fall. Identify weak market groups engaged in a downtrend and use countertrend bounces to enter. These issues frequently carry lower short interest than typical hot stocks. They are less vulnerable to squeezes.
- Incorporate seasonality into trading
Short selling during option expiration weeks and around holidays can have painful loss consequences. These markets do not follow natural supply-and-demand. The calendar influences have an effect on the securities traded, how long a position holds, the conditions in place while exposed, and the forces that impact average realistic monthly returns.
Every market activity segment such as Monday’s opening bell and Friday’s closing reflect some time element bias. Results improve when traders incorporate the elements into their workflow.
- Use convergence-divergence analysis
Moving average convergence divergence to follow or create trading strategies is a popular technical indicator. It has characteristics of leading and lagging indicators with a moving average ‘trigger line.’ Traders like the versatility and multi-functionality of the strategy.
The momentum forecasting and trend-following abilities of MACD are not complicated. Experienced and novice traders find interpretation and confirmation easy. The strategy is an efficient and reliable technical tool. It is used when dynamic conditions of major indices move in step when conflicting divergence signals are pulling in opposite directions.
- Avoid investing in big story stocks
When questionable and colourful stories dominate the financial media and press, many traders become excited because they believe selling such securities are instant money makers. The attraction of massive crowds significantly raises the odds for vertical squeezes even in toxic downtrends.
- Trade and profit from pattern failure
Many traders buy breakouts and sell breakdowns. Others attempt to profit by doing the opposite. They wait for a sell-off or rally to fail and buy the breakdown or sell the breakout. The oppositional against-the-grain tactics take the concept a step further. They buy when failures fail. Modern algorithm programs anticipate how human traders react to breakout failure to attract momentum.
With this knowledge, they guide prices down to levels that trap breakout traders and execute rapid short sales that generate more downside momentum, thus completing the failure swing.
- London hammer trades
The premise looks for rejection bars forming at resistance after a price moves out of a narrow range. A sale or purchase depends on the direction of the hammer. Employ a tight stop close to the tail of the hammer. The goal is a two-to-one profit/loss ratio. The stop moves to break even when the price move in profit is equal to the risk amount of the trade.
- Pop ‘n’ stop trades
It is a trick used in determining if a price will continue in a breakout direction. It is essential information needed to profit from the strategy. When a price ‘pops’ out of a range and temporarily stops before resuming an upward move, place a limit order one to two pips ahead of a rejection bar. The stop loss is just below the rejection bar tail. A more conservative approach places the stop just below the range highs.
The idea is to make predictions how strong or weak one currency is against another. FX trading is available around the clock. It is a popular means of trading anytime of the day.
Trade is possible whenever markets are operating. As events that affect currency occur, speculation on currency changes is possible. The rapid price changes are constant short selling opportunities. Traders must be sharp and effectively monitor their positions while putting investment strategies in place.
